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Subject: Re: Look at this...

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Look at this...

9/20/17       
Pat Gilbert

Look at this...


View higher quality, full size image (960 X 661)

9/21/17       #2: Look at this... ...
Gary Balcom Member

Website: http://www.Atlantacabinet.com

Pat,

You're the Grand Puh Bah of charts, what's your insight from this? Are we at a cliff?

9/21/17       #3: Look at this... ...
Pat Gilbert

Not at all quite the opposite.

This is a leading leading indicator.

The crash shown to the left was a result of over investment. There is NO such over investment currently.

Things look good for foreseeable future.

9/21/17       #4: Look at this... ...
TonyF

Pat Gilbert:

Interesting chart, but what is it that is actually tracked? Billings in millions/billions of dollars? Percentage of billing increase/decrease from the previous month? The vertical axis of the graph is not very well explained.

TonyF

9/21/17       #5: Look at this... ...
Pat Gilbert

Tony

I don't know it may be just a survey like the PMI survey.

No matter the unit of measure, the trend is key.

Calculated Risk

9/22/17       #6: Look at this... ...
Pat Gilbert

Gary did you mean "Grand Puh Bah" in the pejorative? Although I don't take it that way.

"A person having much influence or holding many offices at the same time, especially one perceived as pompously self-important."

Charts don't have a lot of opine to them...

Not stating what to see, just where to look.

Since the crash I find it useful to consider the subject.

9/22/17       #7: Look at this... ...
Gary Balcom Member

Website: http://www.Atlantacabinet.com

Ha! sorry about the reference. I was actually thinking about the Flintstones cartoon when I wrote it. No insult was intended, Pat. I just meant you know far more about that stuff than most of us here.

9/22/17       #8: Look at this... ...
Alan F. Member

Maybe the output has increased, sales have increased relative to output but gross sales /billings are down because AE firms are 2x as efficient as they were 10 years go.

What we need are billings to gross construction contracts and by area and by type of work. If school billings are up 2x and office interiors are down 2 and you don't do schools then tough times.

Its about as useful as linear feet of cabinet sale is up or MDF sales are up.

Its finger in the wind overview of economic activity without any detail.

Did an AE firm in California just get a 100 million contract for future stations along the high speed railway? What are the top 20 driving contracts by dollar volume

From a subscribed list of paid content I can see the top 20 Architecture firms in San Jose billed 250 million in 2016 for work in silicon valley.

9/22/17       #9: Look at this... ...
Pat Gilbert

That may be true. The same could be said about GDP, yet it is validly used as a metric despite it's obvious flaws.

As stated the trend is useful.

 

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